An assessment of bioeconomic modeling of pest resistance with new insights into dynamic refuge fields

Marion Desquilbet and Markus Hermann

No 12-263, TSE Working Papers from Toulouse School of Economics (TSE)

Abstract: We examine the optimal time-variant refuge policy to manage pest resistance to Bt crops in afinite-horizon discrete-time model. We identify analytically the intertemporal effects of refuge fields on the pest population and its susceptibility. The shape of the optimal refuge policy and whether or not pest susceptibility should be exhausted completely at the end of the time horizon depend crucially on the values of a cost premium of Bt seeds and the fitness cost of resistance (over-mortality of resistant pests) and are addressed via numerical simulations. We demonstrate the importance of modeling the dynamics of the biological system accurately, of defining a diploid (and not haploid) biological model, and of using a discrete-time (rather than continuous-time) framework.

Date: 2012-09
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:tse:wpaper:26138

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