Long term international GDP projections

Wilson Au Yeung, Michael Kouparitsas (), Nghi Luu and Dhruv Sharma ()
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Wilson Au Yeung: Treasury, Government of Australia
Nghi Luu: Treasury, Government of Australia

No 2013-02, Treasury Working Papers from The Treasury, Australian Government

Abstract: This paper develops a framework for projecting the GDP growth of Australia’s trading partners from 2012 to 2050. The framework draws heavily on the existing conditional growth literature, including long-standing estimates of key convergence parameters. It adds to the large amount of research in this area by providing estimates of the level of long-run relative productivity for 155 countries. We use a novel non-parametric approach that combines the World Economic Forum’s ordinal measure of long-run relative productivity (the ‘Global Competiveness Index’) and actual observed productivity to produce a cardinal measure of long-run relative productivity.

Keywords: China; India; conditional convergence (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F01 O40 O50 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 29 pages
Date: 2013-09, Revised 2013-09
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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