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Estimates of uncertainty around budget forecasts

John Clark, Caroline Gibbons, Susan Morrissey, Joshua Pooley, Emily Pye, Rhett Wilcox and Luke Willard
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John Clark: Treasury, Government of Australia
Caroline Gibbons: Treasury, Government of Australia
Susan Morrissey: Treasury, Government of Australia
Joshua Pooley: Treasury, Government of Australia
Emily Pye: Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Australian Aid program, Government of Australia
Rhett Wilcox: Treasury, Government of Australia

No 2013-04, Treasury Working Papers from The Treasury, Australian Government

Abstract: We use past forecast errors to construct confidence intervals around Australian Government Budget forecasts of key economic and fiscal variables. These confidence intervals provide an indication of the extent of uncertainty around the point estimate forecasts presented in the Budget.

Keywords: Confidence intervals; forecast errors (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E17 H68 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for and nep-mac
Date: 2013-11, Revised 2013-11
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