Spatial Evolution of the US Urban System

Yannis Ioannides and Henry Overman

No 18, Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University from Department of Economics, Tufts University

Abstract: We test implications of econom c geography models for location,size and growth of cities with US Census data for 1900 - 1990. Our tests involve non-parametr c estimations of stochastic kernels for the distributions of city sizes and growth rates, conditional on various measures of market potential and on features of neighbors. We show that while these relationships change during the twentieth century, by 1990 they stabilize such that the size distribution of cities conditional on a range of spatial variables are all roughly independent of these conditioning variables. In contrast, similar results suggest that there is a spatial element to the city wage distribution. Our parametric estimations for growth rates against market potential, entry of neighbors, and own lagged population imply a negative effect of market potential on growth rates, unless own lagged population is also ncluded, in which case market potential has a positive effect and own lagged population a negative one. Cities grow faster when they are small relative to their market potential. In total, our results support some theoretical predictions, but also provide a number of interesting puzzles.

Keywords: urban growth; spatial evolution; economics geography (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C14 R00 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2000
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-geo, nep-tid and nep-ure
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Spatial evolution of the US urban system (2004)
Working Paper: Spatial evolution of the US urban system (2004)
Working Paper: Spatial Evolution of the US Urban System (2000)
Working Paper: Spatial evolution of the US urban system (2000)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:tuf:tuftec:0018

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