Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture: a European case study

Catherine Benjamin and Ewen Gallic
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Catherine Benjamin: Université de Rennes 1, CREM UMR CNRS 6211, France

Economics Working Paper Archive (University of Rennes & University of Caen) from Center for Research in Economics and Management (CREM), University of Rennes, University of Caen and CNRS

Abstract: The effects of climate change on European agriculture under different alternative scenarios are empirically studied. Empirical results exhibit the effects of seasonal weather variables on both mean yields and the variance of wheat and corn yields. Prices show a positive and significant impact on wheat yields for northern Europe, only after the CAP reform. Prior to this reform, the effect of prices on yields were not statistically different from zero. The empirical models are then used to assess the effect of climate change on yields. Four climate projection scenarios reflecting greenhouse gas concentration trajectories are tested. Mitigate spatio-temporal effects are found. Wheat yields would increase at the European scale under most scenarios, but the gains would decrease with time for regions in the north in the long-run. Results are less optimistic for corn yields. In the short-run, some northern regions would experience gains in yields, but these gains would transform into losses in the long-run. Those losses would even be higher in the south of Europe.

Keywords: Agriculture; Climate change; Crop Yields; Prices; Variance of Yields (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C23 Q15 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr and nep-env
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