The Diabolical Spiral: Food Prices and Civil Conflicts
Marie-Hélène Hubert and
Additional contact information
Isabelle Cadoret: Université de Rennes 1, CREM UMR CNRS 6211, France
Véronique Thelen: Université de Rennes 1, CREM UMR CNRS 6211, France
Economics Working Paper Archive (University of Rennes 1 & University of Caen) from Center for Research in Economics and Management (CREM), University of Rennes 1, University of Caen and CNRS
Facors of production may be destroyed in countries that experience a civil conflict, which most likely limits agricultural production and drives up domestic food prices. Thus, a country can enter into a diabolical spiral between food prices and civil conflicts. Our study estimates this diabolical spiral by employing three-stage least squares. We use a panel data set of 82 countries spanning from 1995 to 2009. Our results reveal that a one per cent rise in domestic food prices increases the likelihood of civil conflicts by two percentage points the following year, and this magnitude is significantly higher in Southeast Asia. During an episode of civil conflict, domestic food prices are around 65 per cent higher. Finally, we use our results to calculate the impact of the 2007-2009 food crisis on the probability of conflicts. This probability increased by 3.9 percentage points during the 2007-2009 food crisis, with the highest relative increase occurring in the Middle East and North Africa.
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
https://ecm.univ-rennes1.fr/nuxeo/site/esupversion ... -37c245683d8d?inline (application/pdf)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:tut:cremwp:2017-17
Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
CREM (UMR CNRS 6211) - Faculty of Economics, 7 place Hoche, 35065 Rennes Cedex - France
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in Economics Working Paper Archive (University of Rennes 1 & University of Caen) from Center for Research in Economics and Management (CREM), University of Rennes 1, University of Caen and CNRS CREM (UMR CNRS 6211) – Faculty of Economics, 7 place Hoche, 35065 RENNES Cedex. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by CODA-POIREY Hélène ().