Rate Equations approach to simulate World population trends

Julio A. Gonzalo (), Félix-Fernando Muñoz () and David J. Santos ()
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Julio A. Gonzalo: Departamento de Física de Materiales. Universidad Autónoma de Madrid.
David J. Santos: Escuela Politécnica Superior, Universidad San Pablo CEU

No 2011/07, Working Papers in Economic Theory from Universidad Autónoma de Madrid (Spain), Department of Economic Analysis (Economic Theory and Economic History)

Abstract: According to UN statistical data and projections world population will begin to decrease by the middle of this century. This paper uses rate equations (fully analogous to those employed in condensed matter physics) to simulate the time evolution of world population, making use of UN population data in the time interval 1900-2010, and to extrapolate the evolution of world population into the near future. This approach has not been used in economics and population dynamics. The simulation predicts a population decline by mid-century. The economic consequences of population decline would be far reaching.

Keywords: rate equations; demographic transition; population trend simulation; world population decline. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C65 J11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 14 pages
Date: 2011-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cmp
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