Falling birth rates and world population decline: A quantitative discussion (1950-2040)

Félix-Fernando Muñoz () and Julio A. Gonzalo ()
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Julio A. Gonzalo: Departamento de Física de Materiales. Universidad Autónoma de Madrid.

No 2013/03, Working Papers in Economic Theory from Universidad Autónoma de Madrid (Spain), Department of Economic Analysis (Economic Theory and Economic History)

Abstract: The UN data (1950-2010) and projections (both medium and low-fertility variants for 2015-2040) show that fertility rates are already below replacement level in all continents except Africa. In this paper we develop a simple new approach for population projections based on a Improved Rate Equations (IRE) model. Population projections under the (1) Malthusian assumption, (2) an (IRE) model fitting and extrapolating from actual UN population data up to 2040, and (3) UN projections (low-fertility variant) are compared. The model fits quite well actual data and suggests a world population decline in the 21st Century. The economic, social and political consequences of this new and global circumstance would be far reaching.

Keywords: world population decline; population trends; jump in population level; improved rate equations model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J10 J11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 20 pages
Date: 2013-03
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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