Analysis and long term forecasting of electricity demand through a decomposition model: A case study for Spain

Julian Perez Garcia and Julian Moral Carcedo

No 2015/07, Working Papers in Economic Theory from Universidad Autónoma de Madrid (Spain), Department of Economic Analysis (Economic Theory and Economic History)

Abstract: Proper planning for the dimensions of an electricity production and transmission system requires the availability of medium- and long-term electricity demand projections that are sufficiently reliable. Generally, these projections are directly linked to the estimated growth for the whole real GDP, although an in-depth historical evolution of this demand, as that given in this article, advises the explicit consideration of several determinants. The aim of this paper is to present an alternative analysis of the demand for electricity based on a simple growth rate decomposition scheme that allows the key factors behind this evolution to be identified. It is possible, taking this scheme as a starting point, to develop a long-term forecasting model to obtain projections of electricity demand given the expected evolution of the key factors. The proposed methodology is illustrated using Spain as a case study to obtain demand projections till 2030.

Keywords: long-term electricity demand; electricity demand forecasting; index decomposition method. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: L L5 L94 Q4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 39 pages
Date: 2015-11
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Analysis and long term forecasting of electricity demand trough a decomposition model: A case study for Spain (2016)
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