Economics at your fingertips  

The Effect of a Financial Block on the Identification of Confidence Shocks in a Structural VAR Model

Christian Myohl

Diskussionsschriften from Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft

Abstract: This paper studies the propagation and properties of a confidence shock in a structural vector autoregression (VAR) model with and without financial variables. The addition of a financial block does not considerably change the propagation and the contribution to the forecast error variance by the confidence shock. Nevertheless, for specific historical episodes, the inclusion of a financial block plays a role. In several recessions, the VAR with the financial block assigns a smaller role to confidence shocks for the fall in GDP. This suggests that the confidence shock may not be properly identified in a structural VAR when financial variables are omitted. Further, I identify a financial channel by which the confidence shock affects economic activity.

Keywords: Confidence shocks; structural VARs; financial channel (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 E32 E44 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ets and nep-mac
Date: 2018-08
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link) (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link:

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Diskussionsschriften from Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Franz Koelliker ().

Page updated 2019-06-13
Handle: RePEc:ube:dpvwib:dp1821