Explaining Forward Exchange Bias...Intraday

Richard K. Lyons and Andrew K. Rose.
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Richard K. Lyons () and Andrew Rose

No RPF-242, Research Program in Finance Working Papers from University of California at Berkeley

Abstract: Intraday interest rates are zero. Consequently, a foreign exchange dealer can short a vulnerable currency in the morning, close this position in the afternoon, and never face an interest cost. This tactic might seem especially attractive in times of crisis, since it suggests an immunity to the central bank's interest rate defense. In equilibrium, however, buyers of the vulnerable currency must be compensated on average with an intraday capital gain as long as no devaluation occurs. That is, currencies under attack should typically appreciate intraday. Using data on intraday exchange rate changes within the EMS, we find this prediction is borne out.

Date: 1995-01-01
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

There are no downloads for this item, see the EconPapers FAQ for hints about obtaining it.

Related works:
Journal Article: Explaining Forward Exchange Bias... Intraday (1995)
Working Paper: Explaining Forward Exchange Bias..Intraday (1995)
Working Paper: Explaining Forward Exchange Bias.... Intra-day (1994)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ucb:calbrf:rpf-242

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
IBER, F502 Haas Building, University of California at Berkeley, Berkeley CA 94720-1922

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Research Program in Finance Working Papers from University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley, Berkeley, CA USA. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Christopher F. Baum ().