International Evidence on GFC-robust Forecasts for Risk Management under the Basel Accord

Michael McAleer, Juan Jimenez-Martin and Teodosio Pérez-Amaral ()

No 2011-01, Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE from Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico

Abstract: A risk management strategy that is designed to be robust to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), in the sense of selecting a Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecast that combines the forecasts of different VaR models, was proposed in McAleer et al. (2010c). The robust forecast is based on the median of the point VaR forecasts of a set of conditional volatility models. Such a risk management strategy is robust to the GFC in the sense that, while maintaining the same risk management strategy before, during and after a financial crisis, it will lead to comparatively low daily capital charges and violation penalties for the entire period. This paper presents evidence to support the claim that the median point forecast of VaR is generally GFC-robust. We investigate the performance of a variety of single and combined VaR forecasts in terms of daily capital requirements and violation penalties under the Basel II Accord, as well as other criteria. In the empirical analysis, we choose several major indexes, namely French CAC, German DAX, US Dow Jones, UK FTSE100, Hong Kong Hang Seng, Spanish Ibex35, Japanese Nikkei, Swiss SMI and US S&P500. The GARCH, EGARCH, GJR and Riskmetrics models, as well as several other strategies, are used in the comparison. Backtesting is performed on each of these indexes using the Basel II Accord regulations for 2008-10 to examine the performance of the Median strategy in terms of the number of violations and daily capital charges, among other criteria. The Median is shown to be a profitable and safe strategy for risk management, both in calm and turbulent periods, as it provides a reasonable number of violations and daily capital charges. The Median also performs well when both total losses and the asymmetric linear tick loss function are considered

Keywords: Median strategy; Value-at-Risk (VaR); daily capital charges; robust forecasts; violation penalties; optimizing strategy; aggressive risk management; conservative risk management; Basel II Accord; global financial crisis (GFC). (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 C53 G11 G17 G32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 39 pages
Date: 2011
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ban, nep-fmk, nep-for and nep-rmg
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Related works:
Journal Article: International Evidence on GFC‐Robust Forecasts for Risk Management under the Basel Accord (2013)
Working Paper: International Evidence on GFC-robust Forecasts for Risk Management under the Basel Accord (2011)
Working Paper: International Evidence on GFC-robust Forecasts for Risk Management under te Basel Accord (2011)
Working Paper: International Evidence on GFC-robust Forecasts for Risk Management under the Basel Accord (2011)
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