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Asymmetric Realized Volatility Risk

David Allen (), Michael McAleer and Marcel Scharth ()

No 2014-16, Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE from Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico

Abstract: In this paper we document that realized variation measures constructed from high-frequency returns reveal a large degree of volatility risk in stock and index returns, where we characterize volatility risk by the extent to which forecasting errors in realized volatility are substantive. Even though returns standardized by ex post quadratic variation measures are nearly gaussian, this inpredictability brings considerably more uncertainty to the empirically relevant ex ante distribution of returns. Explicitly modeling this volatility risk is fundamental. We propose a dually asymmetric realized volatility model, which incorporates the fact that realized volatility series are systematically more volatile in high volatility periods. Returns in this framework display time varying volatility, skewness and kurtosis. We provide a detailed account of the empirical advantages of the model using data on the S&P 500 index and eight other indexes and stocks.

Keywords: Realized volatility; Volatility of volatility; Volatility risk; Value-at-risk; Forecasting; Conditional heteroskedasticity. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C58 G12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cfn, nep-for, nep-mst, nep-ore and nep-rmg
Date: 2014-06
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