Contagion spillovers between sovereign and financial European sector from a Delta CoVaR approach
Javier Ojea Ferreiro
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Javier Ojea Ferreiro: Department of Quantitative Economics, Complutense University of Madrid (UCM), Somosaguas, 28223,Spain.
No 2018-12, Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE from Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico
I examine the evolution of contagion indexes between the European financial sector and the sovereign sector (Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands and Spain) during the European sovereign credit crisis. Contagion indexes, Delta CoVaR and Delta CoES, reflect events associated with extreme left tail returns and interdependencies between defaults different than those observed in tranquil times. These measures reveal very useful information concerning risk management. I use a copula approach with time-varying parameters to capture changes in the tail dependence between returns in the financial and the sovereign sectors. I employ a Switching Markov model to identify the most stressful moments of the contagion indicators. The results point out the emergence of Greek debt crisis on March 2010 and the vulnerable situation of Spain and Italy in summer 2011 as the main periods where the contagion from the sovereign to the financial sector was stronger. The decrease in contagion was gradual since the speech made by the ECB on July 26th,2012. The statistical significance of the change in the contagion indicators is checked using boostrap tests.
Keywords: CoVaR; Copula; European sovereign credit crisis; systemic risk. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G18 G21 G32 G38 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cfn, nep-eec and nep-rmg
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