An econometric analysis of burglary in Ireland

Kevin Denny, Reamonn Lydon () and Colm Harmon

Open Access publications from School of Economics, University College Dublin

Abstract: This paper outlines an econometric model of the level of burglary in Ireland between 1952 and 1998. We explain the evolution of the trend in Burglary in terms of demographic factors: in this case the share of young males in the population, the macro-economy in the form of consumer expenditure and two characteristics of the criminal justice system : the detection rate for these crimes and the size of the prison population. The share of young males is associated with higher levels of these crimes. Imprisonment and detection act as powerful forces for reducing crimes, the effects of aggregate consumption are more difficult to pin down but we show that higher spending is associated with more lucrative but probably fewer crimes. One somewhat surprising result is that we were unable to find any robust effect from direct measures of labour market activity such as unemployment rates or wage levels.

Keywords: Burglary--Ireland; Crime--Sociological aspects; Burglary--Econometric models (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2004
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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http://hdl.handle.net/10197/157 First version, 2004 (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: An econometric analysis of burglary in Ireland (2004)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ucn:oapubs:10197/157

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