The behaviour of inflation and unemployment in the United States

Vincent Hogan ()

No 200016, Working Papers from School of Economics, University College Dublin

Abstract: Low rates of inflation have been recorded in the United States in recent years despite a decline in the unemployment rate. This phenomenon could be the result of a series of transitory shocks or of a permanent change in the structure of the economy leading to a lower NAIRU. The paper suggests that while the NAIRU may have fallen slightly, it has not fallen by an amount sufficient to explain the recent behaviour of inflation. The main explanation for recent inflation performance appears to be that there have been favorable price shocks; in particular, the cost of imports has fallen sharply as the dollar has appreciated.

Keywords: Inflation; Philips Curve; Natural rate of unemployment--United States; Inflation (Finance)--United States; Phillips curve (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2000-06
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http://hdl.handle.net/10197/329 First version, 2000 (application/pdf)

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Working Paper: The Behaviour of Inflation and Unemployment the United States (2000)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ucn:wpaper:200016

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