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On the likely extent of falls in Irish house prices

Morgan Kelly

No 200701, Working Papers from School of Economics, University College Dublin

Abstract: Looking at house price cycles across the OECD since 1970, we find a strong relationship between the size of the initial rise in price and its subsequent fall. Were this relationship to hold for Ireland, it would predict falls of real house prices of 40 to 60 per cent over a period of 8 to 9 years. House price falls tend not to have serious macroeconomic consequences, but the unusually large size of the Irish house building industry suggest that any significant house price fall that does occur could impose a difficult adjustment on the economy.

Keywords: Housing--Prices; Construction industry--Ireland (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2007-02
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http://hdl.handle.net/10197/38 First version, 2007 (application/pdf)

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Journal Article: On the likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices (2007) Downloads
Working Paper: On the likely extent of falls in Irish house prices (2007) Downloads
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