On the likely extent of falls in Irish house prices
No 200701, Working Papers from School of Economics, University College Dublin
Looking at house price cycles across the OECD since 1970, we find a strong relationship between the size of the initial rise in price and its subsequent fall. Were this relationship to hold for Ireland, it would predict falls of real house prices of 40 to 60 per cent over a period of 8 to 9 years. House price falls tend not to have serious macroeconomic consequences, but the unusually large size of the Irish house building industry suggest that any significant house price fall that does occur could impose a difficult adjustment on the economy.
Keywords: Housing--Prices; Construction industry--Ireland (search for similar items in EconPapers)
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations View citations in EconPapers (15) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10197/38 First version, 2007 (application/pdf)
Journal Article: On the likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices (2007)
Working Paper: On the likely extent of falls in Irish house prices (2007)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ucn:wpaper:200701
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in Working Papers from School of Economics, University College Dublin Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Nicolas Clifton ().