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Exploring long memory and nonlinearity in Irish real exchange Rates using tests based on semiparametric estimation

Derek Bond (), Michael J. Harrison and Edward O'Brien

No 200901, Working Papers from School of Economics, University College Dublin

Abstract: Deciding whether a time series that appears nonstationary is in fact fractionally integrated or subject to structural change is a diffcult task. However, various tests have recently been introduced for distinguishing long memory from level shifts and nonlinearity. In this paper, three testing approaches based on the properties of semiparametric estimators of the fractional differencing parameter, d, are described and applied to the (log) Ireland-United Kingdom and Ireland-Germany real exchange rates. The two exchange rates behave quite differently over time and the new tests give different results for each; but overall the results provide fairly strong support for the possibility of nonlinearity rather than long memory.

Keywords: Fractional integration; Long memory; Nonlinearity; Real exchange rates; Structural change; Time-series analysis; Foreign exchange rates--Econometric models; Nonlinear theories (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 F31 C51 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ets and nep-ifn
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http://hdl.handle.net/10197/1322 First version, 2009 (application/pdf)

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