Communal violence in the Horn of Africa following the 1998 El Niño

Stijn van Weezel

No 201617, Working Papers from School of Economics, University College Dublin

Abstract: This study exploits a shift in Spring precipitation patterns in the Horn of Africa following the 1998 El Niño to examine the effect of climate change on conflict. Using data for Ethiopia and Kenya and focusing on communal conflict the regression analysis links districts that have experienced drier conditions since 1999 relative to 1981-1998 with higher conflict levels. However, the magnitude of the estimated effect is low and the direction of the effect is as likely to be positive as negative. Moreover the results are sensitive to model specification, not robust to using another outcome variable, and do not generalise well to out-of-sample data. The cross-validation illustrates that the model linking droughts with conflict has a relatively poor predictive performance. The results also show that districts with substantial shares of pastoralism experience higher levels of communal violence, something that is well documented in the qualitative literature, but don’t face higher risks following decreases in precipitation levels.

Keywords: Horn of Africa; Climate change; Rainfall; Communal conflict (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D74 O55 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 24 pages
Date: 2016-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr and nep-env
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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http://hdl.handle.net/10197/8243 First version, 2016 (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: Communal violence in the Horn of Africa following the 1998 El Niño (2017)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ucn:wpaper:201617

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