Forecasting and Analyzing Economic Activity with Coincident and Leading Indexes: The Case of Connecticut
Pami Dua () and
Stephen Miller ()
No 1995-05, Working papers from University of Connecticut, Department of Economics
We develop coincident and leading employment indexes for the Connecticut economy. Four employment-related variables enter the coincident index while five employment-related variables enter the leading index. The peaks and troughs in the leading index lead the peaks and troughs in the coincident index by an average of 3 and 9 months. Finally, we use the leading index in vector-autoregressive (VAR) and Bayesian vector-autoregressive (BVAR) models to forecast the coincident index, nonfarm employment, and the unemployment rate.
Keywords: coincident index; leading index; VAR and BVAR forecasts (search for similar items in EconPapers)
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Published in Journal of Forecasting, December 1996
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:uct:uconnp:1995-05
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