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Forecasting Nevada Gross Gaming Revenue and Taxable Sales Using Coincident and Leading Employment Indexes

Mehmet Balcilar (), Rangan Gupta (), Anandamayee Majumdar and Stephen Miller ()

No 2010-21, Working papers from University of Connecticut, Department of Economics

Abstract: This paper provides out-of-sample forecasts of Nevada gross gaming revenue and taxable sales using a battery of linear and non-linear forecasting models and univariate and multivariate techniques. The linear models include vector autoregressive and vector error-correction models with and without Bayesian priors. The non-linear models include non-parametric and semi-parametric models, smooth transition autoregressive models and artificial neural network autoregressive models. In addition to gross gaming revenue and taxable sales, we employ recently constructed coincident and leading employment indexes for Nevada's economy. We conclude that non-linear models generally outperform linear models in forecasting future movements in gross gaming revenue and taxable sales.

Keywords: Forecasting; Linear and non-linear models; Nevada gross gaming revenue; Nevada taxable sales (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 R31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cmp and nep-for
Date: 2010-07
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Published in Empirical Economics

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Related works:
Journal Article: Forecasting Nevada gross gaming revenue and taxable sales using coincident and leading employment indexes (2013) Downloads
Working Paper: Forecasting Nevada Gross Gaming Revenue and Taxable Sales Using Coincident and Leading Employment Indexes (2011) Downloads
Working Paper: Forecasting Nevada Gross Gaming Revenue and Taxable Sales Using Coincident and Leading Employment Indexes (2010) Downloads
Working Paper: Forecasting Nevada Gross Gaming Revenue and Taxable Sales Using Coincident and Leading Employment Indexes (2010)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:uct:uconnp:2010-21

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