Comment: Betting on Secession: Quantifying Political Events Surrounding Slavery and the Civil War

Paul Hallwood

No 2017-07, Working papers from University of Connecticut, Department of Economics

Abstract: Abstract: This paper argues that falling slave prices in the earliest months of the American Civil War in April 1861 indicates lack of confidence in the durability of the Confederacy. The key to this understanding is use of an asset pricing model that distinguishes between the expected outcomes of the war, whether the war was thought to be over quickly or otherwise, and whether any compensation for emancipation would be paid. This view concurs with other investigators who have examined falling gold bond and cotton bond prices and, in the very early months, rising Confederate dollar prices of gold, as well as difficulties in selling Confederate bonds to finance its war effort.

Keywords: Confederacy; default risk; secession; slavery; US Civil War (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D72 D74 D83 G14 H77 N31 N41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 7 pages
Date: 2017-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-his and nep-pol
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:uct:uconnp:2017-07

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