Twice Unlucky: From Early-Life Cholera Exposure to Adult COVID-19 Mortality

Patricia I. Ritter and Ricardo Sanchez
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Patricia I. Ritter: University of Connecticut
Ricardo Sanchez: Barcelona School of Economics

No 2019-16, Working papers from University of Connecticut, Department of Economics

Abstract: Many individuals in developing countries experience multiple shocks over their lifetimes, yet the interplay between these shocks is not well understood. This study estimates the impact of prenatal exposure to the cholera epidemic in Peru in the early 1990s on COVID-19 mortality several decades later. We find that a one-standard deviation increase in cholera exposure during the first trimester in utero—measured by regional infection rates—results in a 5% in-crease in COVID-19 mortality among working-age women. Significant long-term effects on cardiovascular health and economic vulnerability were iden-tified as potential mediators. Given that cholera is the second most common type of epidemic worldwide, this study suggests that policies aimed at reducing the spread of such epidemics could yield substantial long-term benefits. Addi-tionally, countries with a history of cholera may experience disproportionate benefits from COVID-19 vaccination efforts.

Keywords: COVID-19; cholera; health; human capital; fetal programming (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I12 I15 I18 I25 O10 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 40 pages
Date: 2019-09, Revised 2023-08
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-hea
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