Analysis of Chile's Rapid Crime Decline

Alejandro Bayas, Nicolas Grau and Esteban Puentes

Working Papers from University of Chile, Department of Economics

Abstract: This paper analyzes a substantial decline in juvenile delinquency in Chile over a short period. Using administrative data linking educational and criminal justice records, we compare the outcomes of male cohorts born in 1996 and 2001. We find that the probability of being prosecuted by age 17 fell by approximately 31% between these cohorts. Employing a Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition, we show that about 24% of the decline is associated with compositional changes in variables such as peer academic performance and maternal education. The explained share is larger for violent crimes (35%) than for non violent crimes (19%). Our findings suggest that improvements in the educational and social environments played an important role in the decline of youth criminal behavior. These results highlight the relevance of early educational investments in shaping long-term crime outcomes and suggest that schools can serve as critical platforms for crime prevention efforts.

Pages: 51 pages
Date: 2025-07
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