Who Migrates Matters: Origin-Country Violence, Crime, and Right-Wing Voting in Chile

Alejandro Micco and Enrique Flores

Working Papers from University of Chile, Department of Economics

Abstract: Using municipality-level data from Chile and a shift-share instrumental-variable strategy, we show that immigration increased homicide and kidnapping rates over 2015–2024. The homicide effect is concentrated among immigrants from medium- and high-violence origin countries. We also find suggestive evidence that greater fragmentation of the immigrant population across nationalities is associated with higher homicide victimization among foreign-born residents. Municipalities more exposed to immigration, especially from more violent origins, saw larger increases in first-round right-wing vote shares between the 2017 and 2025 presidential elections. The composition of immigration, not only its scale, shapes its social and political consequences.

Pages: 46 pages
Date: 2026-10
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