Department of Economics Working Papers

From Universidad Torcuato Di Tella
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2026_05: A Common European Business Cycle: Markov-Switching SUR with Cross-Sectional Weighting

Michael Dueker, Inés Kishkill and Martin Sola

2025-10: Integrated Monetary and Financial Policies for Small Open Economies

Suman Basu, Emine Boz, Gita Gopinath, Francisco Roch and Filiz Unsal

2025_05: Inflation in Ethiopia

Pablo Neumeyer, Martin Gonzalez-Rozada and Can Soylu

2025_08: Corrupt Voting: Information and Electoral Accountability

Federico Weinschelbaum, David Levine and Felipe Zurita

2025_03: Do Periods of Extreme Asset Price Volatility Signal the Beginning of a Recession? An International Comparison

Delfina Ricordi, Martin Sola, Fabio Spagnolo and Nicola Spagnolo

2025_06: The Economic Ripple Effects of a Temporary Shutdown

Pablo Neumeyer, Francisco J. Buera, Roberto Fattal Jaef, Hugo Hopenhayn and Yongseok Shin

2025_10: Default and Interest Rate Shocks: Renegotiation Matters

Victor Almeida, Carlos Esquivel, Timothy J. Kehoe and Juan Pablo Nicolini

2025_11: Fiscal Rules, Robust Correction Mechanisms, and Sovereign Spreads

Julien Acalin, Leonardo Martinez and Francisco Roch

2025_01: Reassessing the Impact of Innovation Subsidies in Latin America: New Evidence from Panel Survey Data in Argentina

Pablo Sanguinetti and Andres Feroce

2025_09: The Fiscal Costs of Unemployment Insurance

Joaquín Herrera, Martin Gonzalez-Rozada and Hernán Ruffo

2025_07: The Incredible Taylor Principle

Pablo Neumeyer and Juan Pablo Nicolini

2025_04: Productivity in the service sector in Colombia: the misallocation and innovation channels

Pablo Sanguinetti and Andrés Feroce

2025_02: Big swings in the data and perceived changes in the risk premia

Martin Sola, Fabio Spagnolo and Francisco Terfi

2024_05: On Regime Separation in Markov-Switching Quantile Regressions

Gabriel Montes-Rojas, Zacharias Psaradakis and Martin Sola

2024_03: Taxing for Health in Latin America

Leandro Arozamena, Hernán Ruffo, Pablo Sanguinetti and Federico Weinschelbaum

2024_04: On the Robustness of Mixture Models in the Presence of Hidden Markov Regimes with Covariate-Dependent Transition Probabilities

Demian Pouzo, Zacharias Psaradakis and Martin Sola

2024_02: Predictive Accuracy of Impulse Responses Estimated Using Local Projections and Vector Autoregressions

Zacharias Psaradakis, Martin Sola, Nicola Spagnolo and Patricio Yunis

2024_01: The Role of Consumer Sentiment in the Stock Market: A Multivariate Dynamic Mixture Model with Threshold Effects

Zacharias Psaradakis, Martin Sola, Francisco Rapetti and Patricio Yunis

2023_02: Unemployment Insurance when the Wealth Distribution Matters

Facundo Piguillem, Hernán Ruffo and Nicholas Trachter

2023_01: A Note on Quasi-Maximum-Likelihood Estimation in Hidden Markov Models with Covariate-Dependent Transition Probabilities

Demian Pouzo, Zacharias Psaradakis and Martin Sola

2022_03: Bond risk premia, priced regime shifts, and macroeconomic fundamentals

Constantino Hevia, Martin Sola and Ivan Petrella

2022_01: The welfare effects of unemployment insurance in Argentina. New estimates using changes in the schedule of transfers

Martin Gonzalez-Rozada and Hernán Ruffo

2022_02: On Testing for Bubbles During Hyperinflations

Rubens Morita, Zacharias Psaradakis, Martin Sola and Patricio Yunis

2022_04: A Time-Varying Threshold STAR Model with Applications

Michael Dueker, Laura E. Jackson, Michael Owyang and Martin Sola

2021_03: Do Trade Agreements contribute to the decline in Labor Share? Evidence from Latin American Countries

Martin Gonzalez-Rozada and Hernán Ruffo

2021_08: Risk Aversion and Changes in Regime

Tomás Caravello, Turalay Kenc and Martin Sola

2021_06: Rational Bubbles: Too Many to be True?

Tomás Caravello, Zacharias Psaradakis and Martin Sola

2021_01: Impact of smoke-free environments on tourism in selected Caribbean countries

Martin Gonzalez-Rozada

2021_09: Renegotiation and Discrimination in Symmetric Procurement Auctions

Leandro Arozamena, Federico Weinschelbaum and Juan-José Ganuza

2021_02: The Impact of Cigarette Price Increases on the Prevalence of Daily Smoking and Initiation in Mexico

Martin Gonzalez-Rozada and Fiona Franco Churruarin

2021_07: Maximum Likelihood Estimation in Markov Regime-Switching Models with Covariate-Dependent Transition Probabilities

Demian Pouzo, Zacharias Psaradakis and Martin Sola

2021_04: Real Exchange Rates and Primary Commodity Prices: Mussa Meets Backus-Smith*

Juan Pablo Nicolini, Constantino Hevia and Joao Ayres

2019_01: Increasing Cigarette Taxes is Unfair to the Poor? Evidence from Argentina

Martin Gonzalez-Rozada

2019_02: Impact of a Recent Tobacco Tax Reform in Argentina

Martin Gonzalez-Rozada

2018_03: Bond risk premia and restrictions on risk prices

Constantino Hevia and Martin Sola

2018_04: Bond Risk Premia and the ”Return Forecasting Factor”

Agustin Gutierrez, Constantino Hevia and Martin Sola

2018_02: Do women ask for lower salaries? The supply side of the gender pay gap

Martin Gonzalez-Rozada and Eduardo Levy Yeyati

2018_01: Assessing the degree of international consumption risk sharing

Constantino Hevia and Luis Servén

wp2017_02: Monitoring Money for Price Stability

Constantino Hevia and Juan Pablo Nicolini

2017_01: Markov-Switching Models with State-Dependent Time-Varying Transition Probabilities

Martin Sola and Zacharias Psaradakis

2016_03: Optimal Unemployment Benefits in the Presence of Informal Labor Markets

Martin Gonzalez-Rozada and Hernán Ruffo

2016_04: Maximum Likelihood Estimation in Possibly Misspeci ed Dynamic Models with Time-Inhomogeneous Markov Regimes

Demian Pouzo, Zacharias Psaradakis and Martin Sola

2016_02: Implications of Increasing Cigarette Taxes in Peru

Martin Gonzalez-Rozada and Alejandro Ramos-Carbajales

2016_01: Risk Premia and Seasonality in Commodity Futures

Constantino Hevia, Ivan Petrella and Martin Sola

2015_1: Addicted to Debt: Foreign Purchases of U.S. Treasuries and the Term-Premium

David Kohn

2015_4: Monetary Policy and Dutch Disease: The Case of Price and Wage Rigidity

Constantino Hevia and Juan Pablo Nicolini

2015_3: How increasing tobacco prices affects the decision to start and quit smoking: evidence from Argentina

Martin Gonzalez-Rozada and Giselle Montamat

2015_2: Financial Frictions and Export Dynamics in Large Devaluations

David Kohn, Fernando Leibovici and Michal Szkup

2015_05: De Facto School Choice and Socioeconomic Segregation in Secondary Schools of Argentina

Martin Gonzalez-Rozada, Mariano Nardowski, Verónica Gottau and Mauro Moschetti

2014_3: The Effects of Unemployment Insurance Under High Informality: Evidence from Argentina

Martin Gonzalez-Rozada and Hernán Ruffo