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The Rise and Fall of Armies

Jonathan Adams

No 1002, Working Papers from University of Florida, Department of Economics

Abstract: For a thousand years, income growth was associated with a rising military employment share. But this share peaked in the early 20th century, after which military employment shares fell with income growth. I argue that rising military shares were driven by structural change out of agriculture, and the recent declines are driven by substitution from soldiers towards military goods. I document evidence for this substitution effect: as countries' incomes rise, the ratio of their military expenditure share to their military employment share rises too. I introduce a game theoretic model of growth and warfare that reproduces the time series patterns of military expenditure and employment. The model also correctly predicts the cross-sectional pattern, that military employment and expenditure shares are decreasing in income during wars. Finally, I show that faster economic growth can reduce military expenditure in the long run.

JEL-codes: E10 F51 H56 O40 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017-05
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-gro and nep-his
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http://users.clas.ufl.edu/adamsjonathan/files/riseandfall.pdf First version, 19-05-2017 (application/pdf)

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