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Stochastic Economic Growth and Volatile Population Dynamics: Past Imperfect and Future Tense

Tapas Mishra (), Claude Diebolt () and Mamata Parhi

Working Papers of BETA from Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg

Abstract: We build an analytical model to understand dynamic interlinkage between volatility in economic growth and stochastic demographic dynamics. The time series properties of the model are exploited to offer introspective understanding of the existence of persistence of endogenous and exogenous growth dynamics within our analytical setting. Our research shows that if the economy faces high degree of interdependence between its volatility and stochastic demographic growth in the past with the possibility of slow dissipation of shocks at present, then future economic growth will experience chaotic dynamics. We investigate two possibilities: a process with persistent shocks that can slowly wither away in future, and a jump process that would characterize how economic growth would respond to the arrival of sudden change in demographic system.

Keywords: Stochastic population; Volatility in economic growth; long-memory; Past dependence; Jump process. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 O47 C14 C22 J11 D1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-gro, nep-mfd and nep-ore
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Handle: RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2015-06