Apertura, productividad y gasto agregado: un modelo de fundamentos del tipo de cambio real

Juan Bení­tez () and Gabriela Mordecki
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Juan Bení­tez: Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración.

No 12-19, Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) from Instituto de Economía - IECON

Abstract: The Uruguayan economy has undergone over the past two decades an important growth process, together with a real appreciation of the domestic currency. This implied that the Real Exchange Rate (RER), calculated as TP/NTP, experienced important changes. From this phenomenon, this paper examines the evolution of the price competitiveness of the economy in light of the possible presence of "Balassa-Smuelson Effect" and a change in the economy's pattern of international integration, in a context of income growth and aggregate expenditure, through the methodology proposed by Johansen. Thus, we found a long-term relationship between the RER, the differential in labor productivity between the Uruguayan and U.S. economies, goods extra-regional exports and the economy's consumption. Furthermore, we found that the elasticities of RER to its long-term fundamentals lie in line with the theory and concludes that the equilibrium real exchange rate has fallen in the last two decades due to the movement of its fundamentals.

Keywords: Real exchange rate; Cointegration; Fundamentals (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 F31 F41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 34 pages
Date: 2012-09
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https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/4200

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ulr:wpaper:dt-19-12

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