Nowcasting del PIB para Uruguay en base a un modelo de ecuaciones puente

Alejo Estavillo () and Gabriela Mordecki
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Alejo Estavillo: Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía

No 23-26, Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) from Instituto de Economía - IECON

Abstract: In the realm of public policy or general economic decision-making, having timely information regarding the level of economic activity is of utmost importance. In this article we explore two methodologies applied to the Uruguayan case: a nowcasting exercise for GDP based on bridge equations estimated through the GETS methodology; and another based on a univariate model, exploiting the newly released Monthly Economic Activity Indicator (IMAE) by the Central Bank of Uruguay. Based on the nowcasting model, with information available up to September 2023, a year-on-year contraction of 0.2 % was expected in Q3-2023, and - still without information for Q4-2023 - a modest growth of 0.04 % for the year’s average. Furthermore, when comparing the projections within the sample with those obtained from a naive model (univariate for GDP), it is observed that the former are more accurate. Additionally, the feasibility of conducting pooling to enhance projections is explored.

Keywords: nowcasting; Uruguay; bridge equations; GETS (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C52 C53 E01 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 16 pages
Date: 2023-12
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https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/42234

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ulr:wpaper:dt-26-23

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