Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Cereal Exports: A Panel VAR Approach

Ronald Miranda and Leonel Muinelo-Gallo

No 19-29, Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) from Instituto de Economía - IECON

Abstract: This paper investigates empirically the effect of exchange rate uncertainty on cereal export flows for a broad sample of countries during the period 2010/01 – 2016/12. To do this, we first estimate the exchange rate volatility using the moving standard deviation of the real effective exchange rate (REER), and then, we estimate the cereal export demand by using a panel data model with autoregressive vectors (P-VAR). This strategy of analysis is applying over different groups of countries, which are obtained by cluster analysis based on the level of REER volatility and the level of cereal export volume. In general, the empirical results suggested a significative negative effect of exchange rate uncertainty on cereal exports in countries characterized by high and persistent REER volatility or high volume of cereal exports (i.e. with market power).

Keywords: Exchange rate uncertainty; Cereal exports; Panel data; Vector Autoregressive; Cluster analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C33 F31 F41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 32 pages
Date: 2019-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-int and nep-ore
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https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/23156

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ulr:wpaper:dt-29-19

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