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Time-varying Long-run Income and Output Elasticities of Electricity Demand

Yoosoon Chang (), Chang Sik Kim, J. Miller (), Joon Y. Park and Sungkeun Park

No 1409, Working Papers from Department of Economics, University of Missouri

Abstract: It is widely accepted that long-run elasticities of demand for electricity are not stable over time. We model long-run sectoral electricity demand using a time-varying cointegrating vector. Specifically, the coefficient on income (residential sector) or output (commercial and industrial sectors) is allowed to follow a smooth semiparametric function of time, providing a flexible specification that allows more accurate out-of-sample forecasts than either fixed or discretely changing regression coefficients. We fit the model to Korean data over 1995:01-2012:12 for the residential sector and 1985:01-2012:12 for the commercial and industrial sectors. The rapid development of Korea over this period provides a very clear case for allowing the coefficient on income/output to vary over time, but the essential modeling strategy is widely applicable.

Keywords: electricity demand; income elasticity of demand; output elasticity of conditional factor demand; cointegration; time-varying coefficients (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C14 C22 Q41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene
Date: 2014-06-03
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Published in Energy Economics 2014

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