Retail sales. Persistence in the short term and long term dynamics

Luis Gil-Alana, Carlos Barros and Albert Assaf ()
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Albert Assaf: Centre for Tourism and Services Research, Victoria University, Australia

No 03/10, Faculty Working Papers from School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra

Abstract: The management of retail sales is of paramount importance to retail organisations and retail policy makers. This study examines the degrees of time persistence and seasonality of various retail sectors using innovative seasonal and non-seasonal fractional integration and autoregressions models. Adapting data from both the Australian and US retail sectors, the results indicate that the impacts of seasonality and persistence are not consistent across the various retail sectors. It also clear that retail sales forecasts are better explained in terms of a long memory model that incorporates both persistence and seasonal components.

Pages: 57 pages
Date: 2010-02-09
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