Uncovering the U.S. Term Premium: An Alternative Route

Luis Gil-Alana and Antonio Moreno ()

No 12/07, Faculty Working Papers from School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra

Abstract: The estimates of the U.S. term premium crucially depend upon the ex-ante decision on whether the short-term rate is either an I(0) or an I(1) process. In this paper we estimate a fractionally integrated (I(d)) model which simultaneously determines both the order of integration of the short-term rate and the associated term premium. We show that the term premium was essentially zero at the end of 2006, after having experienced a steady decline of around 2.5 percentage points since the beginning of 2004.

Pages: 45 pages
Date: 2007-10-01
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Journal Article: Uncovering the US term premium: An alternative route (2012)
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