NOT TOTALLY NAKED: TEXTILES AND CLOTHING TRADE IN A QUOTA FREE ENVIRONMENT

Joerg Mayer

No 176, UNCTAD Discussion Papers from United Nations Conference on Trade and Development

Abstract: The impact of ATC-termination on the rise in China’s market share in global textiles and clothing trade is likely to be lower than often suggested by CGE models because the models (i) neglect the industry structure and sourcing strategies of buyers; (ii) take insufficient account of current patterns of tariff protection, preference schemes, and rules-of-origin regulations that allow managing textiles and clothing trade after ATC-termination; (iii) assume smooth and overly rapid responses to changes in the trading environment particularly in quota-imposing developed countries; and (iv) ignore that achieving China’s development objectives requires structural change towards production and exports of manufactures that are more skill-intensive than clothing.

Date: 2004
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