A comparative study of the forecasting performance of three international organizations

Pingfan Hong and Zhibo Tan

Working Papers from United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs

Abstract: This article evaluates and compares the forecasting performance of three international organizations: the United Nations, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. The annual forecasts made by the United Nations in the period of 1981-2011 are found to be fairly robust, in terms of bias and efficiency. In comparison, the forecasting performance of the United Nations is found to be marginally better than the other two organizations during the period of 2000-2012. However, the forecasts of all these organizations missed the Great Recession of 2009 by a large margin.

Keywords: evaluation of forecasts; forecasting errors; macroeconomic forecasting; financial crisis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C30 C80 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 15 pages
Date: 2014-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:une:wpaper:133

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