A comparison study on currency crises in Turkey

Dimitrios Dapontas ()

No 53, Working Papers from University of Peloponnese, Department of Economics

Abstract: This paper is comparing the currency crises in Turkey for 20 years (from 1990 till today) and to distinguish their causes divided in three periods (1990-1995), (1995-2002) and (2002-2009). My goal is to compare these incidents to find similarities and differences among them. The forward spread is selected as a dependent variable along with a set of independent macroeconomic and social variables (balance of payments, crisis elsewhere, real effective exchange rate, foreign exchange reserves, gold price,lending rate, money, external debt and consumer price level) examining these variables for a twenty year period (January 1990- December 2009) we examined their relation to the forward spread, following the feasible least squares methodology, The results show that the crisis of 1994 had to do with fundamentals ( first generation theoretical framework), the 2001 crisis with economic condition and policy (modified first generation) and the 2008 crisis with contagion and the global credit crunch (third generation).

Keywords: currency crisis; developing economies; structural reforms. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 18 pages
Date: 2010
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