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Debt intolerance: Threshold level and composition

Hideaki Matsuoka

No 14, Working Papers on Central Bank Communication from University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics

Abstract: Fiscal vulnerabilities depend on both the level and composition of government debt. This study investigates this threshold level of debt and its composition to understand the non-linear behavior of the long-term interest rate by developing a novel approach: a panel smooth transition regression with a general logistic model (i.e., a generalized panel smooth transition regression). Our main findings are threefold: (i) the impact of the expected public debt on the interest rate would increase exponentially and significantly as the foreign private holdings ratio exceeds approximately 20 percent; otherwise, strong home bias would mitigate the upward pressure of an increase in public debt on the interest rate; (ii) if the expected public debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds a certain level that depends on the funding source, an increase in foreign private holdings of government debt would cause a rise in long-term interest rates, offsetting the downward effect on long-term interest rates by expanding market liquidity; and (iii) out-of-sample forecast of our novel non-linear model is more accurate than those of previous methods. As such, the composition of government debt plays an important role in the highly non-linear behavior of the long-term interest rate.

Keywords: Generalized panel smooth transition regression; Expected public debt-to-GDP ratio; Foreign private investors; Long-term interest rate (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E43 E62 H63 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 40 pages
Date: 2020-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
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Working Paper: Debt intolerance: Threshold level and composition (2020) Downloads
Working Paper: Debt Intolerance: Threshold Level and Composition (2020) Downloads
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