Econometrics and decision making: Effects of presentation mode

Robin Hogarth () and Emre Soyer

Economics Working Papers from Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra

Abstract: Much of empirical economics involves regression analysis. However, does the presentation of results affect economists’ ability to make inferences for decision making purposes? In a survey, 257 academic economists were asked to make probabilistic inferences on the basis of the outputs of a regression analysis presented in a standard format. Questions concerned the distribution of the dependent variable conditional on known values of the independent variable. However, many respondents underestimated uncertainty by failing to take into account the standard deviation of the estimated residuals. The addition of graphs did not substantially improve inferences. On the other hand, when only graphs were provided (i.e., with no statistics), respondents were substantially more accurate. We discuss implications for improving practice in reporting results of regression analyses.

Keywords: Regression analysis; presentation formats; probabilistic predictions; graphs., leex (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C01 C20 C53 Y10 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cbe, nep-ecm and nep-hpe
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Working Paper: Econometrics and Decision Making: Effects of Presentation Mode (2015)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:upf:upfgen:1204

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