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International commodity prices and civil war outbreak: new evidence for Sub-Saharan Africa and beyond

Antonio Ciccone

Economics Working Papers from Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra

Abstract: A new dataset by Bazzi and Blattman (2014) allows examining the effects of international commodity prices on the risk of civil war outbreak with more comprehensive data. I find that international commodity price downturns sparked civil wars in Sub-Saharan Africa. Another finding with the new dataset is that commodity price downturns also sparked civil wars beyond Sub-Saharan Africa since 1980. Effects are sizable relative to the baseline risk of civil war outbreak. My conclusions contrast with those of Bazzi and Blattman, who argue that the new dataset rejects that commodity price downturns cause civil wars. The reason is that I calculate commodity price shocks using time-invariant (fixed) export shares as commodity weights. Bazzi and Blattman also calculate commodity price shocks using export shares as commodity weights but but the exports shares they use are time-varying. Using time-invariant export shares as commodity weights ensures that time variation in price shocks solely re ects changes in international commodity prices. Price shocks based on time-varying export shares partly re ect (possibly endogenous) changes in the quantity and variety of countries' exports, which jeopardizes causal estimation.

Keywords: civil wars; commodity price downturns (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E3 O1 Q1 Q10 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-afr, nep-agr, nep-dev and nep-his
Date: 2018-01
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Working Paper: International Commodity Prices and Civil War Outbreak: New Evidence for Sub-Saharan Africa and Beyond (2018) Downloads
Working Paper: International Commodity Prices and Civil War Outbreak: New Evidence for Sub-Saharan Africa and Beyond (2018) Downloads
Working Paper: International Commodity Prices and Civil War Outbreak: New Evidence for Sub-Saharan Africa and Beyond (2018) Downloads
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