Lumpy forecasts

Isaac Baley and Javier Turen

Economics Working Papers from Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra

Abstract: Professional forecasters adjust their inflation forecasts in a distinctly lumpy pattern, making infrequent but substantial revisions. Strategic concerns play a significant role - forecasters are more likely to adjust, and by larger amounts, when their forecasts deviate from the consensus. Using a fixed-event forecasting framework, we document the impact of lumpiness and consensus pressure on forecast adjustments. Our quantitative model, which integrates Bayesian belief updating with forecast revision costs and strategic concerns, not only replicates the observed lumpiness in survey data but also sheds light on forecasters' apparent overreactions to new information. This structured framework enables us to "cleanse" forecasts, isolating the underlying inflation beliefs that drive these forecasts.

Keywords: forecasting; survey of professional forecasters; overreaction; consensus; forecast revision costs; forecast stability; strategic concerns; Bayesian learning; fixed-event forecasts (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D80 D81 D83 D84 E20 E30 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024-12
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:upf:upfgen:1898

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