Subsampling inference in threshold autoregressive models

Jesus Gonzalo and Michael Wolf

Economics Working Papers from Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra

Abstract: This paper discusses inference in self exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) models. Of main interest is inference for the threshold parameter. It is well-known that the asymptotics of the corresponding estimator depend upon whether the SETAR model is continuous or not. In the continuous case, the limiting distribution is normal and standard inference is possible. In the discontinuous case, the limiting distribution is non-normal and cannot be estimated consistently. We show valid inference can be drawn by the use of the subsampling method. Moreover, the method can even be extended to situations where the (dis)continuity of the model is unknown. In this case, also the inference for the regression parameters of the model becomes difficult and subsampling can be used advantageously there as well. In addition, we consider an hypothesis test for the continuity of the SETAR model. A simulation study examines small sample performance.

Keywords: Confidence intervals; continuity; subsampling; threshold autoregressive models; regime shifts (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C12 C14 C15 C22 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2001-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ecm and nep-ets
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
https://econ-papers.upf.edu/papers/573.pdf Whole Paper (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Subsampling inference in threshold autoregressive models (2005)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:upf:upfgen:573

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Economics Working Papers from Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ( this e-mail address is bad, please contact ).