Financial development, financial fragility and growth

Norman Loayza () and Romain Ranciere

Economics Working Papers from Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra

Abstract: This paper studies the apparent contradiction between two strands of the literature on the effects of financial intermediation on economic activity. On the one hand, the empirical growth literature finds a positive effect of financial depth as measured by, for instance, private domestic credit and liquid liabilities (e.g., Levine, Loayza, and Beck 2000). On the other hand, the banking and currency crisis literature finds that monetary aggregates, such as domestic credit, are among the best predictors of crises and their related economic downturns (e.g., Kaminski and Reinhart 1999). The paper accounts for these contrasting effects based on the distinction between the short- and long-run impacts of financial intermediation. Working with a panel of cross-country and time-series observations, the paper estimates an encompassing model of short- and long-run effects using the Pooled Mean Group estimator developed by Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (1999). The conclusion from this analysis is that a positive long-run relationship between financial intermediation and output growth co-exists with a, mostly, negative short-run relationship. The paper further develops an explanation for these contrasting effects by relating them to recent theoretical models, by linking the estimated short-run effects to measures of financial fragility (namely, banking crises and financial volatility), and by jointly analyzing the effects of financial depth and fragility in classic panel growth regressions.

Keywords: Financial; development (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C33 G21 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2004-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-fin, nep-fmk and nep-pke
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (33)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Financial Development, Financial Fragility, and Growth (2006)
Working Paper: Financial Development, Financial Fragility, and Growth (2006)
Working Paper: Financial Development, Financial Fragility, and Growth (2005)
Working Paper: Financial Development, Financial Fragility and Growth (2004)
Working Paper: Financial development, financial fragility, and growth (2004)
Working Paper: Financial Development, Financial Fragility, and Growth (2002)
Working Paper: Financial Development, Financial Fragility, and Growth (2002)
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