A Simulation Model of the Effect of Fertility Reduction on Economic Growth in Africa

Mahesh Karra (), David Canning and Joshua Wilde
Additional contact information
Mahesh Karra: Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard School of Public Health

No 315, Working Papers from University of South Florida, Department of Economics

Abstract: We investigate the effects of a decline in fertility on economic growth and development outcomes using a macrosimulation model. We incorporate three fertility effects that have previously not been included in such models: the effect of fertility on child health and later worker productivity; the effect of fertility on savings; and a feedback mechanism from female education to fertility, in which changes in female education that are induced by declining fertility in turn alter subsequent fertility. We also improve the model of the economy by incorporating a more realistic three-sector framework and by allowing for labor market imperfections. Using data from Nigeria, we find that adding these channels roughly doubles the effect of an initial fertility decline on income per capita after 50 years when compared to previous simulation results.

Keywords: Fertility; Family Planning; Economic Growth; Macrosimulation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I15 I18 J11 J13 O11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 44 pages
Date: 2015-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cmp, nep-gro and nep-lab
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.usf.edu/arts-sciences/departments/econ ... 20MVK%2012-10-15.pdf (application/pdf)
Our link check indicates that this URL is bad, the error code is: 404 File Not Found

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:usf:wpaper:0315

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Papers from University of South Florida, Department of Economics Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Diogo Baerlocher ().