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The difficult task of changing while growing

Marwil Dávila-Fernández and Serena Sordi

Department of Economics University of Siena from Department of Economics, University of Siena

Abstract: This article develops a small-scale agent-based model to investigate the interplay between heterogeneous agents, institutions and technological change. By acknowledging the concept of behavioural dispositions, we di¤erentiate between changers, neutrals, and deniers. Our research question is further motivated using data from the last two waves of the World Values Survey. The composition of the population is endogenously determined taking into account that reasoning is context-dependent. As we increase the degree of interaction between agents, a bi-modal distribution with two different basins of attraction emerges: one around an equilibrium with the majority of the population supporting innovative change, and another with most agents being suspicious of innovation. Neutral agents play an important role as an element of resilience. Conditional on their share in equilibrium, an increase in the response of the respective probability functions to growth results in a super-critical Hopf-bifurcation, followed by the emergence of persistent fluctuations. Numerical experiments on the basin of attraction also reveal the birth of a periodic hidden attractor. The long-run cycles we obtain indicate that economies are more likely to be path-dependent than what conventional approaches usually admit. As the productive structure evolves, the institutional framework is transformed and reinforces technological change in a cumulative way.

JEL-codes: O11 O33 P11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-gro, nep-hme and nep-tid
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