Perceived Immigration and Voting Behavior

Davide Bellucci (), Pierluigi Conzo and Roberto Zotti

Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers from University of Turin

Abstract: Several studies document significant effects of real immigration on electoral outcomes. This paperfocuses, instead, on perceived immigration by looking at how local elections in Italy were affected by pre-electoral sea arrivals of refugees. While, upon arrival, refugees cannot freely go to the desired municipality, landing episodes are widely covered by the media before the elections, thereby increasing immigration salience. We develop an index of exposure that varies over time and across municipalities depending on the nationality of the incoming refugees. It captures the impact of perceived immigration on voting behavior, on top of the effects of real immigration measured by the local stock of immigrants and refugees. We find that in municipalities where refugees are more expected to arrive, participation decreases, whereas protest votes and support for extreme-right, populist and anti-immigration parties increases. Since these effects are stronger in areas better served by internet and located closer to the ports of disembark, electoral campaigns likely played a key role in boosting voters’ fear of future arrivals. Consistent with this, Twitter data show that immigration salience raises mainly in the election period and in highly-exposed provinces, while most arrivals occur months later.

Pages: pages 78
Date: 2019-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cdm, nep-eur, nep-mig, nep-pol, nep-soc and nep-ure
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (11)

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Related works:
Working Paper: The Political Effects of (Mis)Perceived Immigration (2024)
Working Paper: Perceived Immigration and Voting Behavior (2019)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:uto:dipeco:201915

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