Blaming migrants doesn’t pay: the political effects of the Ebola epidemic in Italy

Michela Boldrini (), Pierluigi Conzo, Simona Fiore () and Roberto Zotti

Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers from University of Turin

Abstract: This paper investigates the political consequences of perceived health risks asso- ciated with immigration in Italy. We leverage the exogeneity of the 2014 Ebola epidemic, which resulted in almost no cases in Italy but triggered a significant pub- lic reaction, with extreme right-wing politicians claiming ongoing immigration could endanger citizens’ health. In a differences-in-differences framework, we examine the changes in the vote share of the main right-wing and anti-immigration party, Lega, across Northern Italian municipalities before and during the Ebola outbreak. Treat- ment is based on perceived exposure to risk-Ebola immigrants, proxied by the local historical concentration of immigrants from countries affected by Ebola in 2014. Re- sults document a drop in political support for Lega in municipalities with a larger share of risk-Ebola migrants. Our findings, robust to falsification tests and alter- native treatment definitions, suggest that strategically exploiting a health crisis to garner support for anti-immigrant policies can eventually backfire.

Pages: pages 48
Date: 2023-12
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