Demographic Dividends, Dependencies and Economic Growth in China and India

Jane Golley () and Rodney Tyers

No 12-03, Economics Discussion / Working Papers from The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics

Abstract: The world’s two population giants have undergone significant, and significantly different, demographic transitions since the 1950s. The demographic dividends associated with these transitions during the first three decades of this century are examined using a global economic model that incorporates full demographic behavior and measures of dependency that reflect the actual number of workers to non-workers, rather than the number of working aged to non-working aged. While much of China’s demographic dividend now lies in the past, alternative assumptions about future trends in fertility and labor force participation rates are used to demonstrate that China will not necessarily enter a period of “demographic taxation” for at least another decade, if not longer. In contrast with China, much of India’s potential demographic dividend lies in waiting for the decades ahead, with the extent and duration depending critically on a range of policy choices.

Pages: 34 pages
Date: 2012
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-age, nep-cwa, nep-dem and nep-dev
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (17)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Demographic Dividends, Dependencies, and Economic Growth in China and India (2012)
Working Paper: Demographic Dividends, Dependencies and Economic Growth in China and India (2012)
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