FERTILITY AND SAVINGS CONTRACTIONS IN CHINA: LONG-RUN GLOBAL IMPLICATIONS

Jane Golley (jane.golley@anu.edu.au), Rodney Tyers and Yixiao Zhou

No 16-24, Economics Discussion / Working Papers from The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics

Abstract: Following three decades of rapid but unbalanced economic growth, China’s reform agendas are set to rebalance the economy toward consumption while maintaining strong GDP growth. Headwinds include a demographic contraction that will bring negative labour force growth and rapid ageing. Rising aged dependency, combined with lower saving rates will rebalance the economy but they will reduce both GDP growth and real per capita income. While an effective two-child policy could sustain growth and eventually mitigate the aged dependency problem, it would set real per capita income on a still lower path. These conundrums are examined using a global economic and demographic model, the results from which show that continuing demographic and saving contractions in China would alter the trajectories of both the Chinese and global economies.

Keywords: China; demography; saving imbalances; spill-overs; global effects (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F42 F43 F47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 41
Date: 2016
Note: MD5 = 29513887575be10593d9163a3f800313
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Journal Article: Fertility and savings contractions in China: Long‐run global implications (2018)
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