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Demographics and Sectoral Reallocations: A Search Theory with Immobile Workers

Simona Cociuba () and James (Jim) MacGee ()

No 20182, University of Western Ontario, Departmental Research Report Series from University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics

Abstract: We show that a decline in the young share of the population exacerbates sectoral reallocation costs. We develop a three sector, perpetual youth search model with sector-specific human capital and two interconnected frictions: sectoral preferences, which imply that only some workers are mobile across sectors, and a wage bargaining distortion, whereby mobile workers’ outside option of searching in the growing sector dampens the fall in shrinking sector wages, leading to rest unemployment. In our parameterized model, output losses after a sectoral reallocation are significant. As population growth declines from 3 to −1 percent, output losses increase sevenfold, and there are extended periods of high unemployment and low vacancies.

Date: 2018
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dge
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